Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
